Concerns, Precautions, and Impact on Voting Turnout

Most voters across the country headed to the polls in 2024 feeling confident in their safety, including women and gender-nonconforming voters. Despite an increased climate of political hostility in the United States, the majority reported feeling mostly or completely safe casting their ballots—a reassuring sign that, for many, the democratic process remains secure.

Yet, beneath this surface, disparities persist. Women, gender-nonconforming individuals, and racially marginalized voters were more likely to carry heightened concerns about their safety. These concerns impacted if and how people from these marginalized groups actually turned out to vote.

Even when the physical act of voting remains largely safe, many voters—especially women, people of color, and gender-nonconforming individuals—feel threatened by the broader political climate of polarization, harassment, and online toxicity.

These feelings of unease extend beyond polling places. Many voters reported being unwilling to discuss their voting plans and choices publicly or on social media.

While most voters expected to be safe during the 2024 election, concerns and expectations about violence or harassment were shouldered by marginalized groups.

Women voters felt worse than men did when thinking about potential violence or harassment during the election—including being afraid, upset, sad, angry, intimidated, and disgusted. Voters of color had higher expectations of personally experiencing violence or harassment than white voters, and gender-nonconforming voters had higher expectations than either men or women.

In general, Americans were aware of the groups that shouldered more concerns and risk.

They correctly estimated that violence and threats during the voting process would be more of a problem for voters of color and gender-nonconforming voters, but overall not particularly high for any group.

State legislators, law enforcement, election officials, and election workers’ perceptions mirrored voters’ perceptions. They expected most voters to be safe, but anticipated marginalized groups to be more likely to encounter violence or harassment during the voting process.

Concerns and expectations about violence or harassment while voting actively shape how some voters approach election day. Women, gender-nonconforming individuals, and voters of color often find themselves adjusting their voting behavior to feel safer at the polls. This reality places an added burden on communities that already face systemic barriers to participation.

The data reveals a clear connection: those who expect violence or feel more negatively about the voting environment are more likely to take safety precautions while voting and less likely to actually turn out and vote.

Even accounting for differences in turnout based on standard demographic variables, increased expectations of experiencing violence or harassment while voting still led to significantly lower voter turnout.

Differences in voter behavior based on education level (one of the strongest predictors of turnout) are only half as large as the differences based on expectations of violence or harassment. Generalizing from our model, roughly 6 million Americans may have decided not to vote in 2024 because of concerns about violence or harassment.